Assessments

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: April 3, 2025

Media

South Sudan

Podcasts

Military & Security

Who are the main actors involved, and what are the primary goals influencing the conflict?

Essential Geopolitics: South Sudan's Evolving Political and Security Outlook

Columns

On Geopolitics

China

Europe

Russia

Members of the Spanish and Bulgarian armed forces during the NATO exercise Steadfast Dart on Feb. 13, 2025, in Tsrancha, Bulgaria. 

Economics

Politics

Any U.S. retrenchment away from Europe will more likely be gradual, shaped by strategic realities, shared interests and material constraints, but this transition will still carry profound military, economic and societal implications that will deeply reshape the Continent's security landscape and accelerate the transition to a truly multipolar world.

The Future of Transatlantic Security Cooperation, Part 1: The View From Washington

Canada

A "Canada First" rally addressed by Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre on Feb. 15 the at the Rogers Center in Ottawa, Canada.

Global Trade

The Liberal Party will most likely win enough seats to form a government -- a stunning turnaround since former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Jan. 6 resignation.

Canada's Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Snapshots

France

French far-right Leader Marine Le Pen leaves the courtroom after a guilty verdict in her embezzlement case trial on March 31, 2025 in Paris, France. 

Marine Le Pen’s conviction for embezzling EU funds and an immediate five-year ban from public office has shaken French politics, threatening government stability and fueling far-right outrage ahead of the 2027 election.

Le Pen's Five-Year Political Ban Sets the Stage for Renewed Political Instability in France

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

Cyber

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Social Issues

Intensifying trade wars, a potential ceasefire in Ukraine, continued volatility in the Middle East and consequential elections in key countries will shape the quarter.

2025 Second-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt

Global Elections

U.S.-China Relations

U.S.-Iran Relations

Turkey

South Korea

Germany

United Kingdom

Ukraine

People wave flags and chant slogans during a protest in front of the municipality headquarters in support of arrested Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu on March 19, 2025, in Istanbul, Turkey. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S. To Announce Tariffs, Protests in Turkey Rage On

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Bolivia

Morales supporters march against the Arce government and denounce the economic crisis Jan. 13 in La Paz, Bolivia. The crisis will fuel political instability ahead of the country's August presidential election amid shortages of dollars and fuel.

The crisis will fuel political instability ahead of the country's August presidential election amid shortages of dollars and fuel.

Bolivia's Socioeconomic Crisis Will Spiral Ahead of Its Presidential Election

Australia

Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers delivers a speech in parliament on the government's newly unveiled 2025-26 budget on March 25, 2025, in Canberra, Australia.

Unveiled just ahead of May elections, the budget marks a pivot to resource-driven growth, U.S.-aligned defense integration and domestic industrial development, but its durability will be tested.

Reading Between the Lines of Australia's 2025-26 Budget

People in Istanbul, Turkey, walk past a currency exchange board showing the Turkish lira, which fell to historic lows against the dollar upon the news of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu's arrest on March 19, 2025. 

Extensive foreign exchange sales have so far kept the Turkish lira relatively stable, but this is a high-risk strategy as it could eventually force Ankara to allow for significant exchange rate depreciation.

Turkey's Efforts To Stabilize Markets Amid Protests May Not Be Sustainable

U.S. Naval Update Map: March 27, 2025

Latest

Mexico

Vietnam

U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks on reciprocal tariffs as U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick holds a chart during an event in the Rose Garden entitled ''Make America Wealthy Again'' at the White House in Washington, D.C., on April 2, 2025. 

Trump's sweeping new tariffs will slow both U.S. and global economic growth, with lower-income Americans and emerging markets like Vietnam being hit hardest.

The U.S. Launches the Largest Trade War in Modern History

Somalia

Egypt

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Philippe Lazzarini (C), the commissioner general for the U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East, attends a humanitarian conference for Gaza in Cairo, Egypt, on Dec. 2, 2024, amid the continuing Israel-Hamas war.

Egypt's economic limitations will continue to restrain its assertiveness in foreign policy, constraining its ability to project power in the region.

Egypt's Economic Priorities Sideline Assertive Foreign Policy

Netherlands

Spain

Italy

Ireland

U.S. President Donald Trump signs an executive order after delivering remarks on reciprocal tariffs during an April 2 event in the Rose Garden in Washington. The U.S.–EU trade dispute is on track to escalate as Brussels prepares retaliation against Washington's sweeping 20% tariff on EU goods, increasing the risk of a protracted tit-for-tat trade war that would disrupt supply chains, slow growth on both sides of the Atlantic and strain broader cooperation. 

The developments could see a protracted tit-for-tat trade war that disrupts supply chains, slows growth on both sides of the Atlantic and strains broader cooperation.

Brussels Prepares to Respond to the Latest Trump Tariffs

The skyline of Kigali, Rwanda, is seen on March 27, 2024.

The region's population dynamics will remain favorable in the context of strong labor force growth and declining dependency ratios.

The Economic Potential of Sub-Saharan Africa's Population Growth

New Zealand

India

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi (L) walks with New Zealand's Prime Minister Christopher Luxon (R) before their meeting at the Hyderabad House in New Delhi, India, on March 17, 2025. 

U.S. tariff threats are pushing India to revamp negotiations over free trade agreements, but protectionist trade policies and other obstacles will challenge the progression of talks.

India Dusts Off Old FTA Negotiations Ahead of U.S. Tariffs

Cambodia

Thailand

The Ta Moan Thom temple is seen on the border between Thailand and Cambodia.

While full-scale military conflict is unlikely, the dispute risks spurring localized border clashes, as both Cambodia and Thailand maintain entrenched military positions with no clear legal resolution.

Thai-Cambodian Tensions Flare Over Disputed Temple, Raising Fears of Clashes

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks from the Oval Office on March 7, 2025, after announcing that tariffs could be imposed on Canadian dairy and lumber products within days. 

The expanding scope of Trump's trade wars, coupled with the whiplash of tariffs being enacted and then suspended, begs the question: what is driving this strategy and what, if anything, will constrain it?

Trump's Emerging Trade Doctrine

A digital map illustration of Russia.

The White House believes that restoring ties with Moscow will help it negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine and, more importantly, undermine Russia-China relations in the long run. But numerous potential pitfalls mean this approach is unlikely to pay off.

The Rationale and Risks of Trump's Push to Reengage With Russia

A map of the United States from 1897. While a revisionist America could lead to a more stable world order, it would be much more likely to lead to greater uncertainty, volatility, and conflict.

While a revisionist America could lead to a more stable world order, it would be much more likely to lead to greater uncertainty, volatility, and conflict.

What a Revisionist U.S. Foreign Policy Could Mean for the World

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Crowds of Palestinians gather to receive food outside a U.N. aid distribution center in the Gazan city of Deir al-Balah on Nov. 2, 2024.

The displacement of any Palestinians from the Gaza Strip will further erode post-World War II norms against population transfers, laying the groundwork for future global conflicts.

Trump's Gaza Plan Risks Further Eroding Global Constraints on Population Removals

Syria

Syria’s de-facto leader Ahmad al-Sharaa addresses a crowd at a mosque in Damascus on Dec. 8, 2024.

While Syrians will drive their country's destiny, external influence from regional and global powers could determine what kind of government replaces the deposed Assad regime.

Syria's Future: Islamist Republic, Turkish Client State, or Jihadist Stronghold?

Indonesia

Japan

Malaysia

Philippines

Taiwan

U.S. President Joe Biden gestures to reporters after landing on the South Lawn of the White House on Sept. 22, 2024, in Washington, D.C. 

Trump's more aggressive and transactional approach could deliver quick wins for the U.S.'s position in the region, though it could also strain ties with key partners. 

Trump's Asia-Pacific Approach Will Test Biden's Gains

A compressor gas station of the Yamal–Europe pipeline is seen on Feb. 19, 2022, in Wloclawek, Poland. 

The expiration of the Russia-Ukraine transit deal underscores Europe's ongoing efforts to sever its reliance on Russian resources, with far-reaching implications for energy markets and geopolitics in the region and beyond. 

The End of Russian Gas via Ukraine Cements Europe's New Energy Landscape

The lower house of India's parliament passed a contentious bill that, among other things, would add non-Muslims to boards that manage Muslim land endowments and enhance the government's role in determining ownership of disputed lands, Reuters reported April 3.

India: Lower House Passes Contentious Reform of Muslim Land Endowments

Science & Technology

Leading U.S.-based AI companies Google and OpenAI rejected the U.K. government's proposed AI copyright plan to create an ''opt-out'' mechanism for users to protect their content from being used in AI training databases, Politico reported April 3.

U.K.: Google and OpenAI Reject Government's AI Copyright Plan

Brazil

In response to new U.S. tariffs, Brazil's Congress approved a bill that provides a legal framework for the government to respond to unilateral trade measures targeting Brazilian goods and services, g1 reported April 2.

Brazil: Congress Passes Bill Allowing Trade Retaliation in Response to U.S. Tariffs

Bangladesh

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

On April 2, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a series of reciprocal tariffs, including a 37% tariff on Bangladesh, a 30% tariff on Pakistan, and a 44% tariff on Sri Lanka, Reuters reported on April 3.

Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh: Steep U.S. Tariffs Hit Countries' Crucial Textile Exports

India's trade department said it was ''carefully examining the implications'' of new U.S. tariffs and consulting with industry experts(?) and exporters to assess their impact after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a series of reciprocal tariffs affecting nearly all U.S. trading partners, including a 27% tariff on India, Reuters reported on April 3.

India: Government 'Examining' Impact of 27% U.S. Tariff

On April 3, Northeast Asian countries responded to U.S. baseline and reciprocal tariffs imposed on April 2.

Asia-Pacific: China Aside, Northeast Asian Countries Likely To Avoid Retaliating Against U.S. Tariffs

South Africa

The African National Congress (ANC)'s Youth League said that President Cyril Ramaphosa should sack members of the center-right Democratic Alliance (DA) from the government after DA lawmakers voted against a key budget document on April 2, News24 reported April 3. 

South Africa: Key ANC Figures Say DA Cannot Remain in Government Following Budget Vote  

Brunei Darussalam

Timor-Leste

Laos

Myanmar

Singapore

Association of Southeast Asian Nations member states are disproportionately impacted by U.S. President Donald Trump's imposition of reciprocal tariffs on April 2, The Wall Street Journal reported April 3. 

ASEAN: Southeast Asia Most Severely Impacted Region by U.S. Tariff Hikes

Gilberto Pichetto Fratin, Italy's Minister of the Environment and Energy Security, discusses a new draft law on nuclear energy with the press at Palazzo Chigi on Feb. 28, 2025, in Rome, Italy. 

Reintroducing nuclear power could enhance Italy's energy security, industrial competitiveness and economic growth, but major political and technical hurdles make a nuclear comeback unlikely in the next decade.

The Challenges Facing Italy's Nuclear Comeback

Escorted by riot police, students burn flares on March 24, 2025, as they march along the streets of Istanbul, Turkey, in support of the city's mayor after he was arrested on corruption charges. 

The protests will likely last for several more weeks following the arrest of Erdogan's top rival, but unless organizers can tap into other grievances, the movement eventually risks losing momentum.

Assessing the Pro-Democracy Protests in Turkey and Their Threat to Erdogan

Cargo containers painted with Chinese and U.S. flags.

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2024 Annual Forecast

Statements made by Trump and his allies, including Elon Musk, offer insight into how his next administration will approach the regulation (or lack thereof) of AI, online content, data and monopolistic business practices.

Previewing Trump's Tech Policies

U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order implementing reciprocal tariffs with a minimum baseline of 10% and special rates for more than two dozen countries, with the 10% baseline tariff taking effect on April 5 and the higher rates on April 9, The Wall Street Journal reported on April 2. 

U.S.: White House Announces Broad Reciprocal Tariff Plan, Though Exempts Canada, Mexico

South Africa's National Assembly adopted Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana's fiscal framework -- the first of three key pieces of legislation to pass the budget -- by 192 votes against 184, Daily Maverick reported on April 2.

South Africa: Adoption of Key Budget Document Risks Implosion of Coalition Government

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

The U.S. Launches the Largest Trade War in Modern History

Brussels Prepares to Respond to the Latest Trump Tariffs

2025 Second-Quarter Forecast

Egypt's Economic Priorities Sideline Assertive Foreign Policy

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

India: Lower House Passes Contentious Reform of Muslim Land Endowments

U.K.: Google and OpenAI Reject Government's AI Copyright Plan

Brazil: Congress Passes Bill Allowing Trade Retaliation in Response to U.S. Tariffs

Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh: Steep U.S. Tariffs Hit Countries' Crucial Textile Exports

India: Government 'Examining' Impact of 27% U.S. Tariff

Asia-Pacific: China Aside, Northeast Asian Countries Likely To Avoid Retaliating Against U.S. Tariffs

South Africa: Key ANC Figures Say DA Cannot Remain in Government Following Budget Vote

ASEAN: Southeast Asia Most Severely Impacted Region by U.S. Tariff Hikes

U.S.: White House Announces Broad Reciprocal Tariff Plan, Though Exempts Canada, Mexico

South Africa: Adoption of Key Budget Document Risks Implosion of Coalition Government

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